Richardson on Cruise Missile Proliferation
August 4, 2006 :: Canberra Times :: Analysis
“How did the [Chinese] C-802 [CSS-N-8] anti-ship cruise missile—rated by experts as among the most lethal in the world—get into Hezbollah’s hands?” asks Michael Richardson, a research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore in today’s edition of The Canberra Times. He goes on to discuss the “extensive but little-known trade in increasingly sophisticated missiles that have the capacity to upset stability and the balance of power in conflict-prone areas of the world.” The supply trail runs from China to Iran and then into Lebanon either by sea or over land via Syria. Iran and Syria are Hezbollah’s allies against Israel and the U.S. China has used Israel as a military supplier in the past, but has political and energy interests in Iran and Syria that are now in conflict with those of Israel. The tale of the C-802, Richardson writes, “is a classic story about the dog-eat-dog nature of the global arms trade and the destabilising impact of weapons that are not effectively controlled by national regulation or international treaties and agreements.” At present, there is no ban on the proliferation of anti-ship cruise missiles such as the C-802. Richardson lays out a plausible and frightening scenario based on the disclosure early last year by officials of Ukraine’s recently installed democratic government of the illegal export of 20 Russian-made Kh-55SM cruise missiles, each with a range of 3,000 km:
The Kh-55 family of missiles is Russia’s main nuclear-armed cruise missile launched from the air by strategic bombers. The missiles, exported in 2000 and 2001, were diverted from Soviet stocks left behind after Ukraine declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The illicit sale took place despite the fact that Ukraine was an regime member. Twelve of the Kh-55SMs reportedly went to Iran, six to China and two to Pakistan. Iran is alleged to have paid nearly $US50million ($A65.5million) for its missiles.
None of the Kh-55SMs from Ukraine had their 200 kiloton nuclear warheads. But the deal included the system for testing, programming and launching the missiles which had been in service for a number of years. China and Pakistan, both declared nuclear powers, evidently wanted to strip the missiles to copy and incorporate its design, propulsion and guidance components into their own efforts to develop long-range cruise missiles—a process known as reverse engineering.
Iran, too, may have similar interests in using some of the Kh-55SMs as a shortcut for developing a derivative long-range cruise missile—one capable of striking Israel from some 1500 km away. But having a dozen of the missiles could also enable Iran to fit the weapon to its Soviet built Su-24 strike aircraft or fire it from ships or land-based truck launchers.
Robertson concludes: “The ultimate nightmare for Israel and the U.S. would be a Kh-55SM-type missile, armed with an Iranian nuclear warhead.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Cruise Missiles, Iran, Proliferation
Fisher: China May Have Second-Strike Capability
August 3, 2006 :: Analysis
China may have a “second-strike” nuclear capability, says Richard Fisher, a researcher at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Alexandria, Virginia. Fisher recently spoke at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., where he stated his belief that Beijing has equipped and launched the first JIN-class (Type 094) ballistic missile submarine. The Pentagon had previously asserted that the new Chinese submarine would not be operational until around 2010. Fisher also speculated that China might have already armed the Type 094 submarine with JL-2 (CSS-NX-5) submarine launched ballistic missiles, which would give China a second-strike nuclear capability in any confrontation with the U.S. “The JL-2 SLBM has undergone a series of tests,” he said. “The potential for [the Type 094 submarine] to be armed with multiple warheads is there.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Sea-Based Systems
» Missile details: CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
Chinese Military Looks to Outer Space
August 3, 2006 :: AFP :: News
China’s space program has to a large extent been a military undertaking from the very beginning, reports the AFP. The article quotes a group of unidentified researchers at the Chinese National Defense University, who yesterday published an article in the mass-circulation People’s Daily that listed space as an area where the People’s Liberation Army must be equipped and prepared to defend Chinese national interests. “Our military should not only protect China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but should also protect the oceans and transport routes and other economic interests as well as … the security of space,” it said. A similar suggestion was put forth last month in the Study Times, a newspaper published by the Communist Party’s Central Party School. “We should strive to develop coordinated land, sea, air and space systems,” the article said. The AFP notes that the new emphasis on space as a possible theater of operations for China’s armed forces is a noteworthy departure from previous Chinese strategic literature, which tended to give space a less prominent place in defense planning. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Space-Based Systems
Hong Kong Op-Ed: China Will Not Help Disarm North Korea
August 2, 2006 :: The Standard (Hong Kong) :: Analysis
China will not prove helpful in disarming North Korea, writes Liu Kin-ming in Hong Kong’s The Standard. Liu analyzes a recent statement by General Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of China’s powerful Central Military Commission, following North Korea’s July 5 test launch of seven ballistic missiles. Speaking at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., on July 19, Guo told the audience: “We only learned of North Korea’s missile tests on July 5 through U.S. intelligence broadcast by the media. At that time, I myself and the relevant people in our government were all very surprised. North Korea is a sovereign state. We can’t force it to do or not to do things.” He continued: “Let me be honest with you. What will North Korea do next? China doesn’t know. I also don’t know.” Liu notes that China’s influence over its neighbor could be limited, as evidenced by Pyongyang’s improper treatment of a top-level Chinese delegation just before its July 5 test launch. Liu emphasizes, however, that regardless of whether or not Guo’s statement about relying upon U.S. intelligence and monitoring is true, it shows that China does not plan to be of any help in disarming Pyongyang. “If Guo’s statement is true, Beijing has no influence over Pyongyang,” he writes. “If the statement isn’t true, Beijing thinks the Americans are the worst suckers on earth.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, North Korea
Hong Kong Op-Ed: China Will Not Help Disarm North Korea
August 2, 2006 :: The Standard (Hong Kong) :: Analysis
China will not prove helpful in disarming North Korea, writes Liu Kin-ming in Hong Kong’s The Standard. Liu analyzes a recent statement by General Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of China’s powerful Central Military Commission, following North Korea’s July 5 test launch of seven ballistic missiles. Speaking at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., on July 19, Guo told the audience: “We only learned of North Korea’s missile tests on July 5 through U.S. intelligence broadcast by the media. At that time, I myself and the relevant people in our government were all very surprised. North Korea is a sovereign state. We can’t force it to do or not to do things.” He continued: “Let me be honest with you. What will North Korea do next? China doesn’t know. I also don’t know.” Liu notes that China’s influence over its neighbor could be limited, as evidenced by Pyongyang’s improper treatment of a top-level Chinese delegation just before its July 5 test launch. Liu emphasizes, however, that regardless of whether or not Guo’s statement about relying upon U.S. intelligence and monitoring is true, it shows that China does not plan to be of any help in disarming Pyongyang. “If Guo’s statement is true, Beijing has no influence over Pyongyang,” he writes. “If the statement isn’t true, Beijing thinks the Americans are the worst suckers on earth.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, North Korea
China Built Underground Bunker for 200,000 People
August 2, 2006 :: AP :: News
China has built a million-square foot underground bunker complex in Shanghai capable of sheltering 200,000 people from a nuclear attack, reports the AP. The article quotes The Shanghai Morning Post, which describes the bunker as connecting to office and apartment buildings, shopping centers, and the subway through an extensive tunnel system. The bunker reportedly has water, electricity, ventilation, and protective doors, and can support its occupants for up to two weeks. The article did not say when the bunker was completed, or whether it was built with a specific threat in mind. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
Chen: China Has 820 Missiles Aimed at Taiwan
July 17, 2006 :: AFP :: News
China has 820 ballistic and cruise missiles currently aimed at Taiwan, according to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian. Speaking today at a forum of Japanese scholars in Taipai, Chen stated that the People’s Liberation Army had deployed 784 ballistic and 36 cruise missiles, adding that the number of missiles is rising at a rate of 120 per year.
Chen’s figures are in line with those of the Pentagon’s 2006 Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, released in May 2006, which estimated the number of Chinese CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan as numbering 710-790, an increase over the previous year’s 650-730 missiles. In his statement, President Chen noted that a ten-hour Chinese bombardment could paralyze Taiwan’s communications, transportation, and command centers. He added that China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan should it declare formal independence. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
» Missile details: CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9), CSS-7 (DF-11)
Commerce: U.S. High-Tech Exports Cannot Aid Chinese Military
July 11, 2006 :: News
U.S. companies that export high-tech goods to China may soon have to verify that their products will not aid China’s military modernization. On July 6, the U.S. Commerce Department proposed restrictions on a list of 47 product classifications developed in conjunction with the Defense and State Departments. The classifications include aircraft, computers, certain software, machine tools, hydraulic fluids, and more. Exporters of such items would be responsible for verifying that China does not use its products for military purposes. The proposal promises a government-approved list of “validated end users,” those Chinese companies that have the confidence of the U.S. government. Any U.S. exporter selling goods to a company from that group would not require a license. The Commerce Department will issue its final ruling on November 3. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
Taiwan to Test Launch Missile Capable of Hitting China
July 6, 2006 :: Reuters :: News
Taiwan plans to test launch a Hsiung Feng-3 short-range ballistic missile capable of hitting China, reports Reuters. According to an online report by the Taiwanese cable news network ETTV, the missile was developed by Taiwan’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology and has a range of 600 km (360 miles). If accurate, the range would put Chinese coastal areas from Fuzhou in Fujian Province to Nan’ao in Guangdong within striking distance of the missile. China has already deployed nearly 800 short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan. The ETTV report speculated that the Hsiung Feng-4 test launch might take place in September. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
McCain on North Korea, Suggests Role for China
June 20, 2006 :: Financial Times :: News
Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Ranking Member of the Armed Services Committee, recently discussed the threat from North Korea in an interview with the Financial Times. In particular, McCain warned of possible regional destabilization between Japan and China if North Korea goes ahead with its test launch of its Taep’o-dong 2 long-range ballistic missile.
We all know what happens if they [North Korea] continue to make this kind of progress and that is the Japanese will acquire missile defence systems and eventually will have to acquire offensive weapons which we know they could readily do given the technology capability they have. The key to all this as we all know is China. It seems to me it is not in China’s interest to see this kind of destabilisation. They’re doing very well and exacerbation of tensions in the region cannot be in their interest. So why they don’t put more pressure on the dear leader is something I simply do not understand. … Depending on what we find out about what North Korea is doing and what its intentions are, we have to ratchet up the importance of the issue in our relationship [with China].
McCain also reiterated his previous opposition to the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, in which North Korea was provided with 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil annually, at no cost, in exchange for suspending its nuclear program. The Framework, supported by the Clinton administration, was and still is viewed by many as blackmail on the part of North Korea, and appeasement on the part of the U.S. According to McCain, the program was “neither verifiable nor enforceable,” and did not do much except “maybe put a billion dollars into the Korean coffers.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Japan, North Korea
» Missile details: Tien Ma 1
