Chinese Missile Tests, Wargames, to Intimidate Taiwan
July 13, 2004 :: Reuters :: News
China plans to conduct a large military exercise later this month to demonstrate its military and especially air superiority to neighboring Taiwan. The exercise to take place at Dongshan island, 150 miles from Taiwan, is said to include several ballistic missile tests as well, including the medium range DF-21 (CSS-5), the mobile, long range DF-31 (CSS-9) ICBM, and the submarine launched version of the DF-31, the JL-2 (CSS-NX-5), reports the Russian Itar-Tass news agency. One year ago, in June 2003, Bill Gertz reported that China planned to test the same three missiles in the coming month.
It is worth noting that Beijing’s test will coincide with the visit to China by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. Since China would have no need to use an ICBM against such a near target as Taiwan, one must suppose that the launch of two ICBMs, the DF-31 and JL-2, could be a signal to the United States that it should not interfere with a Chinese attack on the island.
Itar-Tass claims that the test will be of a new version of the DF-31, with an increased range and multiple warhead capability. The two land-based missiles will reportedly be fired from the Wuzhai testing ground in Shanxi Province, and will be directed at China’s northeast, the Lop Nur test range. A Chinese government report released July 4 describes the test as both the “largest scale exercise this year,” and that it is meant to serve a “substantial warning” to Taiwan. (Article, Link)
» June 30, 2003: China Set to Test Missiles
» More stories on: China, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: CSS-5 Mod 2, CSS-5, CSS-9 (DF-31), CSS-NX-5 (JL-2)
China Tests S-300 Missile Defense Interceptor
July 7, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
China recently tested an interceptor for its S-300P (SA-10 “Grumble”) air and missile defense system, notes the PLA Daily. A number of the S-300 systems, perhaps as many as 120, were sold to China by Russia, but China is also developing its own versions, the HQ-10 or HQ-15, as well as more advanced missile interceptors which incorporate technology acquired from the American Patriot system, the HQ-9 and the FT-2000. (Article, Link)
» PLA Daily description of test
» More stories on: China, Chinese Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign
» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble)
Taiwan: Send BMD Faster
July 2, 2004 :: ABC News :: News
Taiwanese Defense Minister Lee Jye has asked the United States to more quickly deliver the multibillion dollar arms package to the small island, including especially the missile defense systems. Lee commented that China’s increased military deployment is what is prompting him to ask for an accelerated delivery.
As noted before on Missilethreat.com, the slow timetable (2019) slated for the delivery of the PAC-3 missile defenses is no match for China’s large arsenal of over 500 short range missiles already deployed near Taiwan, a collection which it continues to increase at a current rate of 75 missiles per year. (Article, Link)
» March 3, 2004: 2019 delivery of PAC-3s is no match for Chinese offensive deployments
» April 2, 2004: Lacking defenses, Taiwan to develop offensive missile to deter China
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)
Pentagon Studies Ways Taiwan Can Deter China
June 7, 2004 :: Defense News :: News
In its annual report on China’s military strategy and modernization efforts, the Pentagon suggests various means by which Taiwan might defend itself against a possible Chinese offensive, notes Defense News. The report argues Taiwan could show its strength by targeting urban populations, high-value infrastructure like the Three Gorges Dam, along with Chinese computer networks, airports, communications nodes and command-and-control centers.
Recognizing the military balance of power is trending steadily in favor of China and “eroding the spatial, temporal and distance challenges that have historically inhibited using force against Taiwan,” the Pentagon presumably wants to encourage the Taiwanese to adopt and work toward a variety of defense reforms, from linking up Taiwan’s armed forces in a computer-network centric system, to emphasizing the importance of cooperation and defenses against Chinese missiles.
Defense analysts say China plans to target the leadership in Taipei with a “decapitation” strategy, thus deterring American intervention. Therefore, it must be necessary for Taiwan to have the tools and capability to fight back. Says the Heritage Foundation’s China expert John Tkacik, Jr., “If Taiwan does not have a credible stand-off strike capability, in any kind of battle situation it will be the U.S. [military] that will have to take the battle to China. I think that makes any kind of conflict much more manageable if those strikes are from Taiwan and not from the U.S.”
Yet Bernard Cole of the National Defense University says, “China is so big and there are so many targets that I don’t see a target set that would convince Beijing to lay off if some sort of conflict broke out.” (Link)
» Annual Report on Chinese Military Power
» More stories on: China, Taiwan
China Says DoD Report Has Ulterior Motives
June 1, 2004 :: BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: News
Days after China engaged in an 18,000 men exercise for “controlling the Taiwan Strait”, Chinese foreign ministry official Liu Jianchao accused the United States Pentagon of a “Cold War mentality,” and “ulterior motives” in its recent annual report to Congress on Chinese Military Power. “The Pentagon report is full of Cold War thinking and cliches on the China threat,” Liu Jianchao said.
The charge that the report engages in “Cold War thinking” is a euphemism for the fact that it emphasizes strategic, rather than asymmetrical, threats, that is, the sort of threat posed by nuclear armed Chinese ICBMs rather than the threat of anthrax of terrorists hiding in caves. And to the extent this is true, to the extent that the threat from terrorism has not so clouded strategic thinking, it is so much the better. The report emphasizes that China, too, is thinking strategically, not asymmetrically, and the United States should be as well. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China
Pentagon Report: China’s Space Power Increasing
June 1, 2004 :: Department of Defense :: Analysis
The Department of Defense released its annual report to Congress, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, which details China’s continued expansion of their ballistic missile capabilities, and ambitions of military superiority in the region, as well as significant ambitions in space.
The report also notes that China is devoting significant electronic warfare systems which could be used to jam the US GPS constellation, as well as “robust” research and development program for laser weapons. In addition, “Beijing may have acquired high-energy laser equipment that could be used in the development of ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”
Space, too, is essential to the future of modern warfare, and China is pursuing electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons, and “microsatellites.” All of this continues, despite China’s salutary denials of the militarization of space, and criticism of any American attempts to defend space assets: “Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent or slow the development of U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and space-based missile defenses,” the report notes; “Privately, however, China’s leaders probably view ASAT systems—and offensive counterspace systems, in general—as well as space-based missile defenses as inevitabilities.” China is said to be pursuing foreign technologies to develop its own domestic satellite-killing capability; “Given China’s current level of interest in laser technology, Beijing probably could develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future,” the report notes.
China also continues to modernize and accelerate its ballistic missile arsenal. China officially has only 20 ICBMs capable of striking the United States, but the report notes that it could have 30 by 2005, and as many as 60 by the end of the decade. Beijing is also expected to replace its 20 CSS-4 Mod 1 ICBMs with a still longer-range version, and to deploy the DF-31 ICBM by the end of the decade—if they have not done so already. (More »»»)
» Annual report, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (.pdf)
» More stories on: China, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Proliferation, Space-Based Systems
» Missile details: CSS-9 (DF-31)
Washington Times Editorial: Helping China Proliferate
May 31, 2004 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
The Washington Times editorial staff writes a fine editorial on the dangers of allowing China membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an action which pretends China can be trusted. An excerpt:
China’s membership is tacit acknowledgement by the other member states — including the United States, Britain, France and Russia — that Beijing supposedly can be trusted with a bigger role in global nuclear trade. That is a shortsighted decision we fear could have dangerous implications in the future. China’s Communist government has a long history of weapons proliferation. Beijing’s relationship with North Korea is particularly troubling. For years, Pyongyang has acted as a middleman to sell billions of dollars of black-market Chinese weapons to such places as Libya, Iran, Syria, Cuba and Pakistan. Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons program would not exist without the technical expertise it received from Chinese scientists. North Korea has worked hastily to produce nuclear warheads and the systems to deliver them. The engineering and designs for their intercontinental ballistic missiles are Chinese, and the two nations maintain a mutual defense pact (the only one Beijing has). It is risky to assume that Beijing will not sell nuclear material to its ally given its lack of restraint in the past.
The editors conclude, with no equivocation: “Beijing’s leaders harbor superpower ambitions and see themselves as the next challenger to American global power. Helping the Chinese become a more significant nuclear power is a mistake.” (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation
Chinese Companies Exported Missile Products
May 25, 2004 :: News
China admitted two of its companies had violated even domestic regulations on exporting of “missiles, missile-related products and technologies” to other countries, by the act fining two of them “millions of yuan” for doing so.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce did not name them, or detail what materials had been shipped, or to what countries, but indicated that one was a trading firm in the province of Jiangsu, and the other is a chemical firm in the province of Shandong. The ministry said in a statement that
The Chinese government always has fought against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and anti-terrorism, and has launched a series rules controlling the export of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and missiles.
The United States had previously sanctioned several Chinese companies for transferring missile technology to Iran, Pakistan, and others, which China and the companies had denied. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: China, Proliferation
Messing and Keller: China’s Ulterior Motives for Covert Proliferation
May 18, 2004 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
F. Andy Messing Jr. and James A. Kellar of the National Defense Council Foundation write in today’s Washington Times of the palpable technological transfers from China to Pakistan, North Korea, and elsewhere, of which the most important are their joint nuclear and ballistic missile efforts. In doing so, they reinforce a point often made here about the real sources of proliferation: that upstart rogue state WMD and missile programs are not operating in a vacuum, but rather have received considerable support from Russia and China.
Pakistan, Iran and North Korea are all pursuing WMD capability. However, to address these countries alone is inadequate. It is akin to fighting a war on drugs by only pursuing the street corner dealer and neglecting Colombia.
(More »»»)
» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Proliferation
North Korean Explosion Prevents Missile Shipment to Syria
May 18, 2004 :: East Asia Intel :: News
The April 22 railroad explosion near the North Korean northwestern province of Ryongchon seems to have exposed a link between North Korea-Syria in ballistic missile proliferation. The “train collision” is said to have destroyed missiles and other “large equipment” bound for Syria, as well as a dozen North Korean-trained Syrian technicians for Syria’s country’s Center for Scientific Research. The explosion is said to have measured 3.6 on the Richter scale.
Moreover, reports East Asia Intel, the missile components were heading from a region near the Chinese border to a North Korean port. Some dispute whether China or North Korea will hold the title for the biggest exporter of ballistic missiles to the middle east. But is it also possible that China is complicit in North Korean proliferation? ( (Article, Link)
» Middle East Newsline report on train explosion
» Imagery of explosion from globalsecurity.org
» More stories on: China, North Korea, Proliferation, Syria
