February 24, 2004 :: CIA :: News
Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence as to the nature and extent of terrorism and the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. In general, he noted that the “picture is changing before our eyes—-changing at a rate I have not seen since the end of the Cold War.” After noting the continued efforts of terrorists such as Al Qaeda to acquire ballistic missiles and WMDs, Tenet went on to roughly outline the major capabilities and proliferation activities of India, Pakistan, Syria, and Iran, but devoted particular attention to three “pivotal states” of concern: China, Russia, and North Korea.
Terrorism
Concerning terrorists, Tenet noted that that “what we’ve learned continues to validate my deepest concern,” that Al Qaeda “remains intent on obtaining, and using, catastrophic weapons. …Mr. Chairman, I have consistently warned this committee of al-QA`ida’s interest in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons. Acquiring these remains a ‘religious obligation’ in Bin Ladin’s eyes, and al-QA`ida and more than two dozen other terrorist groups are pursuing CBRN materials.”
Libya
Regarding Libya, he noted that U.S. and British intelligence officers who secretly traveled to Libya in December forced Libya to disclose several dozen facilities related to their ballistic missile programs, which included “their deployed Scud B sites and their secret North Korean-assisted Scud C production line,” which showed signs of “indigenous missile design work” as well as “cooperation with North Korea on the 800-km range Scud Cs.”
Iran
Tenet went into some detail with Iran, describing it as
“both a regional threat and a proliferation concern. Iran’s ballistic missile inventory is among the largest in the Middle Eastand includes the 1300-km range Shahab-3 MRBM as well as a few hundred SRBMs. Iran has announced production of the Shahab-3 and publicly acknowledged development of follow-on versions. During 2003, Iran continued R&D on its longer-range ballistic missile programs, and publicly reiterated its intention to develop space launch vehicles (SLVs)—-and SLVs contain most of the key building blocks for an ICBM. Iran could begin flight-testing these systems in the mid- to latter-part of the decade.
Iran was also described as willing to proliferate its missile technology to other countries of concern; Iran “publicly advertises its artillery rockets and related technologies, including guidance instruments and missile propellants.”
India and Pakistan
With regard to India and Pakistan, Tenet noted that both “are pressing ahead” to develop and test long- and short-range ballistic missiles, some of which are designed to deliver nuclear warheads long distances.
Syria
Syria continues to advert for foreign assistance in its creation of more advanced, solid-propellant missile production. Syria’s liquid-propelled ballistic missile program is dependent especially upon North Korean equipment and assistance. Finally, Syria is said to be developing a longer-range SCUD D program with the help of North Korea and Iran.
“PIVOTAL STATES”
Tenet devoted additional discussion to three states he described as “pivotal”: North Korea, China, and Russia.
China
Tenet described China as continuing
“an aggressive missile modernization program that will improve its ability to conduct a wide range of military options against Taiwan supported by both cruise and ballistic missiles. Expected technical improvements will give Beijing a more accurate and lethal missile force. China is also moving on with its first generation of mobile strategic missiles.
China also remains a large proliferation problem: “Chinese firms continue to be a leading source of relevant technology and continue to work with other countries on ballistic missile-related projects.”
While Tenet admitted China has cooperated in other areas, he nevertheless described China’s accelerating military buildup as “our greatest concern”:
Last year, Beijing reached new benchmarks in its production or acquisition from Russia of missiles, submarines, other naval combatants, and advanced fighter aircraft. China also is downsizing and restructuring its military forces with an eye toward enhancing its capabilities for the modern battlefield. All of these steps will over time make China a formidable challenger if Beijing perceived that its interests were being thwarted in the region.
Russia
Of Russia, Tenet spoke of its vulnerable “WMD materials and technology,” susceptible “to theft or diversion.” He also expressed concern at “the continued eagerness of Russia’s cash-strapped defense, biotechnology, chemical, aerospace, and nuclear industries to raise funds via exports and transfers—-which makes Russian expertise an attractive target for countries and groups seeking WMD and missile-related assistance.”
North Korea
Tenet noted that North Korea continues its nuclear program, long range nuclear delivery systems, and the advancment of its many missile programs, with which it can now threaten all of South Korea, all of Japan, and some of the United States. The North’s proliferation includes the exportation of “complete ballistic missiles and production capabilities, along with related components and expertise,” along with “narcotics and other contraband across the globe.”
As regards North Korea, which has announced its withdrawal from the Nonproliferation Treaty, Tenet noted that it
“is nearly self-sufficient in ballistic missiles, and has continued procurement of raw materials and components for its extensive ballistic missile programs from various foreign sources. The North also has demonstrated a willingness to sell complete systems and components that have enabled other states to acquire longer-range capabilities and a basis for domestic development efforts earlier than would otherwise have been possible.
As for current North Korean capabilities, he referenced their multi-stage Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload.”
(Article)
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