February 11, 2004 :: AP :: News
Russia has begun the first stages of a massive “all-out nuclear war” exercise, according to reports from several Russian newspapers. The largest in over two decades, the war games rival the “seven hour nuclear war” maneuvers by the Soviet Union in 1982. The tests include test firings of sea and land-based ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, cruise missiles, spy satellite launches, the simulated destruction of a U.S. satellite, and a test of the Moscow ABM system.
The military exercise, overseen by President Vladimir Putin, will test the Russian nuclear triad while showing the world that Russia is still a first rate military power. Some dismiss the goals of the exercise as innocuous political maneuvers in anticipation of the Russian Presidential election in March. Officially, the exercise is said to be anti-terrorism-related. But a more likely explanation is that, like the 1982 tests, this exercise serves the genuine goals of sharpening of Russia’s offensive nuclear deterrent against the United States, overcoming American missile defenses, and upgrading Russia’s own missile defenses. As Putin commented last week, “The world should see our military power as an element of strategic security.”
Nuclear Submarines
The Byzantine nature of the Russian undersea fleet limits the degree of ready information on the nuclear exercise, but a number of sources provides the following details.
The Russian navy will be using their recently modernized Delta-IV ballistic missile submarines. Delta-IV ballistic missile submarines will launch at least one RSM-54 (SS-N-23) ballistic missile from the Barents Sea, probably simulating attacks to the U.S. west coast. While unconfirmed, it is also likely that the more modern Typhoon submarines which are reportedly recently left refit will participate in this facet of the war-game. The Typhoon submarines will probably be in the North Sea and simulate attacks against both the eastern and central United States.
ICBMs Tests and Anti-Satellite Warfare
The Interfax-Military News Agency quotes Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, the chief of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, as saying that the exercise would involve several launches of ICBMs around Russia, but did not give any other details. Another source reports that Topol-M ICBMs will be launched at the Kura ground in Kamchatka.
Pravda, the official newspaper of the current Russian Communist Party, however, describes the USSR’s seven-hour exercise on June 18, 1982 as involving the launches of two ground-based UR-100 ICBMs and one RSM-50 (SS-18) SLBM from a nuclear submarine. The UR-100s are said to have been intercepted by two A-350R ABMs, and RSM-50 hit the target in Kura ground in the missile range in the Kamchatka peninsula. An 15ZH45 IRBM (SS-20) is also to have launched from Kapustin Yar ground in southern Russia.
The current exercise’s ground tests will also include the launching of military satellites from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and the Plesetsk launch pad in northern Russia, to simulate the replacement of satellites lost in action. Again, it seems rather incredible that these sorts of things would not be directed against the United States, whose perceived designs for the domination of space remains of considerable concern to Russia. China’s space assets are, as of yet, quite limited.
Similarly, Pravda notes that the 1982 exercise included three satellites launched within the space of two hours: an IS-P (Kosmos-1379) intercepting satellite, a Zenit-6 (Kosmos-1380) spy satellite from Baikonur Space Center in Kazakhstan, and a Parus navigating satellite from Plesetsk Space Center in the North of Russia. During that exercise, the Kosmos-1379 satellite is said to have successfully intercepted a Lira target simulating a U.S. Transit satellite, the predecessor to the GPS which was then used by the Navy to track enemy missiles.
As for the Soviet-Russian intentions for including space in any major war, it is worth citing an excerpt from Peter Schweizer’s book, Reagan’s War. There, he recounts the following, taking place during the 1982 “seven hour nuclear war”:
Later, the U.S. space shuttle Challenger was cruising the heavens in a tight orbit around the earth at an altitude of some 365 kilometers, conducting a variety of scientific tests and observing celestial bodies in space. Down on earth, at a massive Soviet military research facility at Sary Shagan, Soviet officials were tracking the shuttle’s progress with an advanced Argun large-phased-array radar. When the shuttle came into range, they fired a thin beam of light—a megawatt laser—directly at Challenger. The onboard communications began to malfunction and the crew felt some physical discomfort. Later, when the shuttle returned to earth and NASA officials determined what had happened, Reagan filed a strongly worded protest to Moscow.
Strategic Bombers
The maneuvers will also include the Tu-160 supersonic strategic bombers test-firing cruise missiles over the northern Atlantic, in imitation of a nuclear attack on America’s eastern seaboard, according to Russia’s business news daily Kommersant. These cruise missiles are highly accurate and would have the advantage of hitting critical targets while literally flying under US radar. The Tu-160 bombers flying over Arctic would also test-fire their missiles at a southern range near the Caspian Sea simulating other unknown world targets.
Pravda reports that all fourteen TU-160 supersonic strategic bombers of Heavy Bombers Division 22 in the Engels, Volga area will take off after an alert signal. Part of the squadron will then go to the North Atlantic to test fire their cruise missiles, and another part will fly to Arctic and Siberia. Tu-22 medium-range supersonic strategic bombers of Air Squadrons 52 and 840 are also said to be involved, with the purpose of firing missiles at the Vladimirovka in the Astrakhan region. These medium bombers would likely be targeting U.S. ships in a real war. Rossiyskaya Gazeta, however, reported Tu-95MS bombers would be flying over the Arctic region.
Russian Missile Defense
As with the 1982 test, the February exercise will also test the Russian missile defense system. Pravda claims that the Topol and RSM-50 missiles and other rockets will be detected by the Moscow ABM systems. These particular tests appear to serve two purposes: the testing of the extensive Russian ABM defenses located near Moscow and the experimentation with new measures to overcome U.S. missile defenses. Seeing that the United States will be deploying missile defenses this year, it seems rather implausible that these are not connected.
Yuri Baluyevsky, first deputy chief of the General Staff, said that the maneuvers would also help develop the means to develop weapons systems “capable of providing an asymmetric answer to existing and prospective weapons systems, including missile defense.” It seems unclear in what sense the exercise to penetrate missile defenses is “asymmetrical”: is the exercise designed against smaller, minor terrorism-type threats they are supposed to be practicing against? Or is the symmetry in another direction, namely against forces larger than those of the Russian—-which can only mean the United States? Baluyevsky’s description of the United States and NATO as Russia’s “strategic partners” seems, then, rather ironic.
These war games are but the latest step in a series of steady recent moves designed to exhibit Russia’s continued and serious strategic deterrent.
The Los Angeles Times quotes Putin as saying the following: “During Soviet times, the very factor of the Soviet Union, its power —- primarily that of its nuclear forces —- was a serious stabilizing factor, the one balancing power in the world. We need to maintain this power, and we will do it.”
(Article)» Update: Feb. 18: Itar-Tass: SS-19 Missile Launched
» Pravda description of nuclear exercise
» Update: Feb. 17, 2004: Two SLBM launches fail
» Russia denies Interfax, Itar-Tass reports of missile failures
» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign
