January 28, 2012
The Threat
America’s vulnerability to ballistic missile attack increases with the proliferation of ballistic missile technology throughout the globe. “The Threat” outlines the danger posed by particular countries.
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Missiles of the World
A detailed database of offensive ballistic missiles throughout the world.
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Cruise Missiles
A comprehensive database of the cruise missiles around the world.
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Scenarios
Ballistic missile attacks can come in many forms. One might prefer to think of war in the modern age as “unthinkable,” but it would be irresponsible to dismiss the harm enemies may wish us. With both textual descriptions and animations, “scenarios” shows what both attacks and interceptions would look like.
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Quote
"I often remind people that a ballistic missile attack using a weapon of mass destruction from a rogue state is every bit as much a threat to our borders now as a Warsaw Pact tank was two decades ago."
--- Madeleine K. Albright, Secretary of State, December 8, 1998
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News and Analysis
Upgraded PAC-3 Successful Intercept
An improved Patriot (PAC-3) interceptor was tested at the White Sands missile range in New Mexico yesterday. A "tactical ballistic missile target" was successfully engaged and destroyed by the Patriot interceptor. The update of the PAC-3 has a longer range and more altitude flexibility when compared to its previous iteration.
The upgraded PAC-3 was in the news for other reasons today, as it was announced that $800 million would be spent (through 2013) on the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) now being developed in concert by the U.S., Italy, and Germany. The upgraded PAC-3, or the "PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement," would form the defensive backbone of MEADS. The program, not without its skeptics, has come under considerable pressure as a result of the recent budget negotiations and general Pentagon belt-tightening. If it weren't for serious collateral expenses that would accompany any premature de-funding or cancellation of the U.S.-European collaborative effort, there is a good chance Congress and the Defense Department would have killed it.
» Coverage of MEADS Funding by Defense News
U.S. Warship to Mediterranean for Euro Missile Shield
The guided missile cruiser USS Monterey will leave Virginia next week to start a six-month deployment in the Mediterranean Sea in order toformally inauguratethe first phase of the Obama administration's Phased Adaptive missile defense approach in Europe. This first stage of Aegis-guided sea-based interceptors will be followed up by the placement of land-based radars before the year is up. The next phase will consist of a seven-year rolling installmentof ground-based interceptors in Romania and then Poland.The plan has been endorsed by NATO, but has run into snags lately, partiallyin the wake of a conflict of understanding over the New START treaty. Russia has been usinglanguage in the treaty's preambleto leverage joint control over the European missile shield, even going so far as to threaten movingoffensive nuclear groups further west in its territory. The U.S. has proposed the sharing of data as an alternative, but Russia remainsrecalcitrant.
Russia regards any long-range missile defense stationed in EasternEurope as a direct threat to itsnuclear deterrent. As ground-based interceptors like the SM-3 get more advanced, they could conceivably be used to take out long-range ICBMs instead of merely the medium-rangeIranian threats that are to be, for now, the main focus of the European missileshield.
Israel-U.S. Arrow Intercept Test
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency and the Israel Missile Defense Organization conducted a joint test of the upgraded Arrow 2 interceptor off the coast of the Point Mugu Naval Airstation in California today. The successful intercept was of a missile similar to what Iran could be expected to launch against Israel. Israel's Green Pine radar system was used in the intercept as well; a missile software upgrade was being tested, and will now be installed system-wide. The Arrow 2 is a component of Israel's multi-layered missile defense—another component of which, the Iron Dome, was tested last week.
The next generation of Arrow interceptors, the Arrow 3, is expected to be in operation by 2015.
» Coverage by the Jerusalem Post
» Missile system details for: Arrow
Two Iron Dome Tests This Week
Israel conducted two tests of its Iron Dome missile defense system in the last few days. In five out of five different tests in the south, the interceptors succeeded in taking out their targets. The Iron Dome system is meant to defend mostly against the short range missiles that have been launched in the past from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli Air Force, who will operate the batteries, estimates that 13 batteries and radars will be able to adequately defend Israel.DoD Budget Released
The Obama administration has released their defense budget proposal for the year. $10.7 billion is being allocated to BMD, with $8.6 billion going to the Missile Defense Agency. Just over $2 billion is apportioned to help implement the 'Phased Adaptive' European missile shield; given other recent reports, this money appears to have come from defense cuts elsewhere; so far, the administration has not been forthcoming with information about where exactly those cuts might come from. The department's summary of the BMD funding says that $780 million will be put toward various BMD programs, including the planned installation of the remaining Ground-Based Interceptors in Alaska (in the last few years, the planned number of GBIs has been reduced, as resources have been shifted to "higher priority" BMD efforts like the European shield—the interceptors are a key component of any defense against long-range missiles launched against the U.S.).
Given the emphasis under the Obama administration on the mid-range threat to Europe posed by Iran—rather than any long-range threat to the U.S.—possible further shifts in resources from projects like long-range homeland missile defense are not out of the question. As negotiations with the House get underway, more budget details will soon start emerging.
Pakistan Tests Nuclear-Capable Cruise Missile
Pakistan is reporting the successful test of a Hatf VII (known as the "Babur") 700km-range cruise missile. The missile, after launching to a height of 600 meters from a ground-based (for now) vertical launch, then flips onto its side and travels between 100 and 200 meters from the ground. This is a highly maneuverable and 'terrain-hugging' cruise missile. The missile can carry up to 450 kilograms of conventional ordinance, or a nuclear payload between 10 and 35 kilotons.
» Cruise missile details: Hatf 7
ABL Continues to Hang On
Here's a long piece in the Wall Street Journal discussing the birth and development of the Airborne Laser. The program has been in the sights of Pentagon budget-cutters for a while—it was downgraded (in terms of funding and strategic priorities) to "test-bed" status in 2009.» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)
Raytheon: SM-3 Block IB Interceptor on Track
Yesterday, Raytheon announced that it had successfully established the functionality of the "fire control loop" by testing the tracking software in an SM-3 Block IB missile. The missile was tested in a zero-gravity environment where it tracked a simulated target.
The SM-3 IB will be part of the Phased Adaptive Approach to European missile defense adopted by the Obama administration. The SM-3 interceptor is the backbone of that approach, and is scheduled for continuing development and upgrades over the next decade.
Is New START Already Unraveling?
Yesterday, Sergei Ryabkov, the Deputy Foreign Minister for Russia, reiterated language that has been coming out of Moscow for weeks—that under a variety of circumstances, the U.S. pursuit of missile defenses in Europe will be considered grounds for Russia's reconsideration of or even withdrawal from its obligations under the New START treaty. Any augmentation of the "qualitative" or "quantitative potential of [U.S.] missile defense" may even lead to a positive Russian response, "including military-technical measures." Ryabkov is here echoing President Dmitry Medvedev, who has said in the last month that unilateral pursuit of missile defenses by the U.S. and NATO might be grounds for the deployment of a Russian offensive nuclear group.
» NATO: European & Russian Missile Shields Separate
WikiLeaks: Anti-Satellite Contest Between U.S. & China
In February of 2008, seasoned national security observers mused that the shoot-down of a malfunctioning satellite by the U.S. was a direct response in kind (really, a demonstration of comparable capability) to the similar display of capability by China a little over a year earlier. Wikileaks has now confirmed those musings.
The U.S. objected immediately and strenuously to the Chinese shoot-down of a satellite more than 20 years after the U.S. had conducted any similar exercise. Before shooting down its own satellite in 2008, the U.S. notified Beijing that any interference with space-based U.S. assets could result in a wide range of responses, including the use of military force.
The Chinese have cited the development of a U.S. airborne laser as partial impetus for the aggressive ASAT test. An airborne laser that can intercept missiles in their boost phase while they are in airspace over the country that launched them is considered to be an "offensive" missile defense system by the Chinese.
» Jeff Foust on the Chinese ASAT
» Vago Muradian on Chinese ASAT Test
» Jim Oberg on China's Political ASAT Strategy
For more, please visit our News Archive…
Overview
An explanation of what ballistic missiles are, how to defend against them, and the fundamental issues which drive the debate over whether or not to defend America.
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IWG Report 2009
Independent Working Group Report: Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. »»
Heritage's 33 Minutes
Watch the Heritage Foundation's new film on the threat posed by long-range ballistic missiles, 33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age. »»
Missile Defense Systems
Ballistic missiles may be destroyed during their flight using systems based on land, sea, air, or space. Each system has particular virtues and vices: a robust and layered defense is necessary to provide for the strategic defense of the United States. This section contains information on past and present missile defenses of the United States, Russia, and other countries, including the land-based systems being deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska.
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Reports and Analyses
Numerous government and academic assessments have been conducted on missile defense, the threat posed by proliferating ballistic missiles, and related subjects. This section contains the best reports and analyses from both advocates and opponents of missile defense.
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Treaties, Laws, and Resolutions
This section contains resources for legal aspects of ballistic missile defense. Until President Bush withdrew the United States on June 2002, the ABM Treaty was the primary obstacle to deploying missile defenses for some thirty years. Information on the treaty’s significance, history, and demise is contained here, along with all other treaties related to missile defense, laws passed by the United States Congress, and resolutions by state legislatures.
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