September 2, 2010
The Threat
America’s vulnerability to ballistic missile attack increases with the proliferation of ballistic missile technology throughout the globe. “The Threat” outlines the danger posed by particular countries.
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Missiles of the World
A detailed database of offensive ballistic missiles throughout the world.
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Cruise Missiles
A comprehensive database of the cruise missiles around the world.
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Scenarios
Ballistic missile attacks can come in many forms. One might prefer to think of war in the modern age as “unthinkable,” but it would be irresponsible to dismiss the harm enemies may wish us. With both textual descriptions and animations, “scenarios” shows what both attacks and interceptions would look like.
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Quote
"I often remind people that a ballistic missile attack using a weapon of mass destruction from a rogue state is every bit as much a threat to our borders now as a Warsaw Pact tank was two decades ago."
--- Madeleine K. Albright, Secretary of State, December 8, 1998
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News and Analysis
Missile Defense Agency Tests BMD System
The MDA has conducted a full system test of America's ballistic missile defenses. Using simulated scenarios (over 2,500 of them), the MDA (along with Northrop Grumman, the top private partner at the Missile Defense Integration and Operations Center) mimicked 36 different possible attacks.
The BMD systems involved in the simulated tests included: space-based sensors; mobile ground-based patriot interceptors; THAAD; sea-based Aegis interceptors; GBIs in Alaska & California; and Lockheed's Command, Control, Battle Management, and Communications system.
Any effective national ballistic missile defense system will in large part be dependent on the continued testing and refinement of the system's total integrated functionality. True global coverage will depend on a sophisticated interweaving of software and floating or ground-based hardware, knit together by command and control centers like NORAD and far-flung high powered X-band radars like the one deployed in Israel and the one slated for deployment in Turkey or Bulgaria.
» X-Band Installation in Turkey or Bulgaria
ABL Test Postponed
(8/18/10):
The Missile Defense Agency has postponed a nightime test of the airborne laser (known as the Airborne Laser Test Bed since the defense department downgraded its status in the budget). The test was supposed to have taken place last night and would have determined the weapon's effectiveness at a range twice that of previous tests. The laser, mounted on the nose of a Boeing 747 and used to intercept missiles, has faced its share of skeptics since the start of the program. Many thought that atmospheric interference would render it useless at most effective ranges. After tests over the last few years, the most notable being two intercepts in February, it has become increasingly apparent that some of the technical hurdles have been overcome.
MDA's press release states that the test was postponed because of a problem with the cooling system on the tracking camera. The test has now been pushed to August 21.
UPDATE (8/23/10): The test has now been postponed again, due to problems with a cooling component.
» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)
Clandestine Channels and Proliferation
An Iranian and a German have been charged by German authorities with illegally exporting long-range missile materials. The Iranian, Mohsen Afrasiabi, bought an expensive furnace used to harden guidance systems against the intense temperatures associated with ICBM flight. The German, Mr. Heinz Ulrich, helped cover up the purchase by telling the firm that Afrasiabi was the final recipient (rather than the Iranian regime). The men were working an end-run around sanctions and arms export embargoes imposed on Iran by Europe.
This story out of Germany comes on the same day that Agence France Presse reports that North Korea continues, through Chinese shell companies and other means, to smuggle into North Korea materials for use in missile launches, despite sanctions and international bans.
Both of these stories point to the need for multi-pronged strategies against rogue actors like Iran and North Korea. Sanctions, by themselves, are insufficient. Tight export controls, especially in militarily advanced places like the U.S. and much of Western Europe, must be vigilantly enforced. Additionally, good intel—whether from electronic or human sources (or both)—is essential to ensuring the possibility of the clear-eyed and muscular diplomacy that can be the only alternative to war with such regimes.
Russia Reinforces Abkhazia & South Ossetia with S-300s
Russia has announced the deployment of S-300 surface-to-air interceptors to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions on the Georgian border. The breakaway of South Ossetia, of course, was the pretext for a Russian invasion of formerly Georgian territory in 2008 and the recognition, by Russia, of Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence.
Russian Air Force Commander Aleksandr Zelin, speaking to the Russian press, has said that the missile batteries—capable of intercepting aircraft, cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles—will be in place to protect "government borders." Russia has been aggressively exporting the S-300 system over the last decade to Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Most recently, there was some controversy surrounding Russian plans to sell S-300s to Iran.
» Iran Protests Russia's Sudden Freeze of S-300 Delivery
» Concessions to Russia in Iran Sanctions Deal
» Missile system details for: S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)
Kuwait Wants Patriot Missile Batteries
The Pentagon has notified Congress that it plans to sell Patriot missile surface-to-air defense systems to Kuwait. The sale would be part of an effort by the U.S. to shore up air defenses in the region as the threat from Iran grows. In addition to Kuwait, missile batteries have been sold or promised to Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE over the course of the last year. America's continued and accelerated support of Israeli missile defenses is well-known as well. These strategic arms sales can be seen as an effort to counter the possibility of single or salvo missile attacks from Iran, on regional neighbors and even on Europe.» U.S. Will Pay for Israel's Arrow 3
» U.S. Has Plans for X-Band Radar in Middle East
» U.S. Stepping Up BMD in Middle East
India Puts Agni III Into Service
India's Defense Minister, Arackaparambil Kurian Antony, has announced that India's military will soon put the Agni III—a ballistic missile with a reported range of 3,000 km—into service. The Agni III is a two-stage missile that some experts believe could have a range of up to 5,000 or 6,000 km with smaller payloads and improved motors. A range of 4,500 km would be needed to reach rival China.
Design for the Agni IV, basically an Agni III with a third stage, is believed to have commenced in 2006. The Agni IV, with a planned range of 5,000-6,000 km, would be India's first truly Intercontinental ballistic missile. India's indigenous offensive ballistic missile program has had some significant setbacks in recent years, especially when compared to their much more successful BMD program.
» Missile details: Agni-1, Agni-2, Agni-3, Agni-4/5
Russia Tests Two SLBMs
On Friday, Russia test-launched two Sineva (NATO designation: SS-N-23) submarine-launched ballistic missiles; they were reportedly launched from the nuclear-class Tula and hit their targets at a test range on the Kamchatka peninsula.
Russia test-launched two such missiles in July of last year.
India Interested in Directed Energy Missile Defenses
It was reported last week that India's Defense Research and Development Organization is pursuing directed energy (laser) technology for use in its missile defenses. The sophisticated technology is still quite far from deployment, but it marks another step forward for DRDO's steady development of a layered ballistic missile defense.
This news comes out of India as the United States is transitioning its directed energy weapon, the Airborne Laser (a chemical laser mounted on a 747), to a "testbed" or experimental (rather than operational) platform. The Defense Department determined it was not operationally viable given the funding devoted to it, despite successful intercepts early this year.
» Times of India Discusses Laser Technology
» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)
Delays for New START Ratification
Senate Foreign Relations committee Chairman John Kerry announced this week that the New START treaty will not reach the full Senate until after the August recess. Republican opposition is turning on, among other things, concerns about the possibility that the treaty might hamper future U.S. missile defenses.
Jon Kyl and others are using the debate to extract more solid commitments from the administration on funding nuclear force modernization in the coming years. Despite being outnumbered, the Republicans on the committee have some leverage because so far the only member of their ranks to come out in explicit support of the treaty is Richard Lugar.
Republicans on the committee and in the larger Senate are also interested in getting a look at some or all of the negotiation record in order to find answers to their concerns about possible ties to U.S. missile defense. Secretary of State Clinton and others have vehemently denied any formal or quid pro quo agreement on BMD.
Senator Kerry could have forced a vote on Tuesday, but held off in order to avoid undue rancor among his Republican colleagues.
Meanwhile, Bill Gertz at "Inside the Ring" reports that Keith Payne's (President, National Institute for Public Policy) recent testimony in the Foreign Relations committee contained strong objections to the treaty because of possible loopholes and compliance laxity in the treaty language; Payne also spoke of reports of forthcoming Russian deployment of a nuclear cruise missile and the addition of more warheads onto its SS-27 ICBM platform.
X-Band Installation in Turkey or Bulgaria
The Washington Post, citing Pentagon sources, reports that Turkey or Bulgaria will likely host an X-band radar installment as part of the Obama administration's 'Phased Adaptive' european missile defense. The X-band would be added to a radar installation already deployed in Israel, and would be augmented by one installed in the territory of one of America's Arab allies.
The radars will provide early warning for a european missile shield that will eventually encompass both ground-based (THAAD, 'Aegis-Ashore,' and a final layer of Patriot missile batteries) and sea-based (Aegis BMD ships, equipped with SM-3 interceptors) components. The current deployment schedule's final goal is 2020. Romania will host the first Aegis Ashore system (scheduled for 2015) and Poland the second (scheduled for 2018).
The Obama administration has plans to substantially increase the number of Aegis BMD ships at sea, to 38 by 2015, and to triple the number of SM-3s from the original goal of 147 to 436, also by 2015. This number of interceptors is thought to be more realistic given the possibility of a salvo-type attack (many missiles rather than one or a couple of ICBMs) launched by Iran on Europe. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has said that such an Iranian attack on Europe is more likely than one or a few missiles.
For more, please visit our News Archive…
Overview
An explanation of what ballistic missiles are, how to defend against them, and the fundamental issues which drive the debate over whether or not to defend America.
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IWG Report 2009
Independent Working Group Report: Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. »»
Heritage's 33 Minutes
Watch the Heritage Foundation's new film on the threat posed by long-range ballistic missiles, 33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age. »»
Missile Defense Systems
Ballistic missiles may be destroyed during their flight using systems based on land, sea, air, or space. Each system has particular virtues and vices: a robust and layered defense is necessary to provide for the strategic defense of the United States. This section contains information on past and present missile defenses of the United States, Russia, and other countries, including the land-based systems being deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska.
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Reports and Analyses
Numerous government and academic assessments have been conducted on missile defense, the threat posed by proliferating ballistic missiles, and related subjects. This section contains the best reports and analyses from both advocates and opponents of missile defense.
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Treaties, Laws, and Resolutions
This section contains resources for legal aspects of ballistic missile defense. Until President Bush withdrew the United States on June 2002, the ABM Treaty was the primary obstacle to deploying missile defenses for some thirty years. Information on the treaty’s significance, history, and demise is contained here, along with all other treaties related to missile defense, laws passed by the United States Congress, and resolutions by state legislatures.
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